𝐈 𝐓𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐚 𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐂𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐨𝐧 𝐆𝐨𝐥𝐝 & 𝐒𝐢𝐥𝐯𝐞𝐫 — 𝐀 𝐃𝐚𝐲 𝐁𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐡.

On the morning of 29th January, I was reviewing bullion data — price structure, ETF participation, positioning levels, and sentiment indicators.
Gold had just marked fresh lifetime highs.
Silver was trading near ₹4 lakh per kg.
Optimism was extreme. Most conversations in the market were about “next upside targets.”
Some analysts were casually warning about “possible corrections.”
But no one was speaking about immediate structural risk.
What I observed was not normal strength. It was exhaustion.
Parabolic expansion in silver.
Overextended long positioning.
ETF inflows at stretched levels.
Sentiment overheating near critical resistance zones.
Gold was around ₹1.72 lakh per 10gm. Silver near ₹4 lakh/kg — levels driven more by emotional participation than sustainable accumulation.
That morning11.30AM, I took a decisive stand:
Sell Gold & Silver.
Exit ETFs and short-term bullish exposure.
Avoid fresh buying in Silver.
Many were surprised. Some were uncomfortable. A few thought it was too aggressive.
But the structure was clear — when price disconnects from risk-adjusted valuation and liquidity begins to tighten, reversals are not gradual. They are violent.
Within hours, ETFs corrected nearly 10%.
The next session turned into panic momentum.
Eventually:
Silver corrected close to 40%.
Gold declined nearly 24%.
Silver moved from ₹4 lakh/kg to nearly ₹2.33 lakh/kg.
Gold dropped from ₹1.72 lakh to around ₹1.43 lakh per 10gm.
For late entrants, it was wealth erosion at scale.
Corrections are common in commodities.
But timing a euphoric top requires reading structure, not headlines.
After the fall, institutions, AMCs and global desks began releasing cautious statements. During the peak — silence.
Markets don’t crash randomly.
They reverse when positioning becomes crowded and liquidity shifts beneath the surface.
Even today, many investors are in disbelief — not because corrections are unusual, but because the timing challenged consensus.
This was not a guess. It was data, positioning imbalance, and structural fatigue.
In my next post, I’ll share what exactly triggered the conviction behind that call.

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𝐒𝐚𝐭𝐲𝐚 𝐒𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐬𝐡

𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐭