๐ Monetary Policy Decisions
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Repo rate unchanged at 5.50%; policy stance remains Neutral
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Unanimous decision by all six MPC members
๐ Inflation Outlook (CPI)
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FY2025โ26 revised down to 3.1% (from 3.7%)
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Q2: 2.1% (โ from 3.4%)
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Q3: 3.1% (โ from 3.9%)
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Q4: 4.4% (unchanged)
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Q1 FY27: 4.9%
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๐ GDP Growth Forecast
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FY2025โ26 retained at 6.5%
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Q1: 6.5%
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Q2: 6.7%
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Q3: 6.6%
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Q4: 6.3%
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Q1 FY27: 6.6%
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๐ External Risks
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US-imposed 25% tariffs on Indian exports seen as a potential threat
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Governor Malhotra: hard to quantify impact unless there are retaliatory actions
๐ธ Rate Transmission & Liquidity
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RBI adopting a โpauseโ to allow earlier easing (100 bps repo + CRR cut) to filter through
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Liquidity to be maintained via variable repo/reverse repo operations
๐ฆ Banking Sector Health
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Net NPAs at 0.5โ0.6%
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Credit growth remains moderate
๐งพ Consumer/Market Reaction
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No change in EMIs = relief for borrowers
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Analysts signal end of easing cycle unless growth slows or inflation drops further
๐งฎ Regulatory Measures
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Re-KYC camps for Jan Dhan accounts
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Simplified process for deceased account settlements
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Auto-bidding facility for T-bills via RBI Retail Direct
๐ Liquidity Management
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VRRR auctions scheduled from August 6
๐๏ธ Upcoming Dates
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MPC minutes: August 20, 2025
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Next MPC meeting: September 29 โ October 1, 2025
๐งญ Bottom-Line Summary
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RBI continues a dovish pause, balancing price stability with growth.
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Inflation is easing; GDP outlook is steady.
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Global trade risks (e.g., US tariffs) remain a key factor to watch.